Russia staged to defeat the Ukrainian army’s large-scale counterattack？ Putin responded

　　[Liu Yupeng, special correspondent of Global Times, Chen Shan] The Ukrainian army’s large-scale counterattack that began in early June seems to be in a state of stagnation. Although there are still many wars in Russia and Ukraine, the Ukrainian army, which has been armed and trained by the West, has not made obvious progress like last year’s counterattack in Kharkov. Many western analysts are worried that the stalemate in the Ukrainian counterattack may affect the continued assistance of the West to Ukraine, and they are constantly making suggestions for the next move of the Ukrainian army.

　　Russian army: Ukrainian army suffered heavy losses in counterattack.

　　According to the Russian "Viewpoint" reported on the 18th, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Konashenkov said on the same day that the Ukrainian military continued to try to launch attacks in the direction of Zaporoge, South Donetsk and Donetsk in the past 24 hours, and the most active action took place in the direction of Zaporoge. In the battle in Zaporoge, the Russian army destroyed 33 tanks, 30 infantry fighting vehicles and 35 armored vehicles of the Ukrainian army within 24 hours; In the direction of Hellson, the Russian army destroyed more than 30 Ukrainian soldiers, destroyed two cars and an American M777 artillery system. In the direction of Donetsk, the Russian army repelled the Ukrainian army for eight attacks and wiped out 210 Ukrainian soldiers.

　　The Russian side’s continuous propaganda in recent days has "phased" defeated the large-scale counterattack of the Ukrainian army. Russia’s "Viewpoint" said on the 17th that Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that Ukraine is starting to try a new counterattack. "Now the battle is underway, but Kiev has no chance." He said that the Ukrainian army is using the so-called strategic reserve, but what is important is that they have failed to achieve their goals in any section. Putin said: "The loss of Ukrainian military technology and equipment continues to increase every day. Up to now, the Ukrainian army has lost about 186 tanks and 418 armored vehicles of various types. " The Russian Defense Ministry reported on the 14th that since the counterattack on June 4th, the Ukrainian army has killed or injured about 7,500 people on the combat contact line, which is not to mention the losses caused to the Ukrainian army by the Russian army’s use of long-range precision guided weapons and air power to penetrate into Ukraine.

　　Russian newspaper Izvestia quoted American political scientist John Varoli as saying on 17th that Putin’s most important statement at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum was about the loss of Ukrainian troops. "This is shocking and has caused anxiety among the elites in Washington, because the whole world has noticed that the so-called counterattack of the Ukrainian army has completely failed." NATO has spent hundreds of billions of dollars on this. Putin’s speech is absolutely humiliating NATO. He told the West that "how many equipment and personnel were destroyed in the Ukrainian counterattack".

　　Vladislav Shurikin, a Russian military expert, said in an interview with Izvestia: "Due to the heavy losses and the lack of success and prospect of breaking through our defense, the current counter-offensive activities of the Ukrainian army have declined. Now the attack on the front is not as fierce as before, because the first stage of the Ukrainian attack has not achieved results. In the Ukrainian military command, in the headquarters of the United States and NATO, we are now frantically looking for opportunities for success. Ukraine’s strategic turn will not happen again, and there is no chance. But they hope to achieve operational success at least in a certain area. "

　　West: Ukrainian counterattack is not as expected.

　　Western media also partially admitted that the Ukrainian counterattack failed to achieve the expected results. At present, the main breakthrough of the Ukrainian army is concentrated in the direction of Zaporoge, and the Ukrainian army has advanced several kilometers in the counterattack, which can be called "the victory of tactical scale." However, CNN said on the 17th that Ukraine’s counterattack against the Russian army has not yet gained "the momentum expected by optimistic observers". According to the report, the current Ukrainian attack is similar to a prelude to broader military operations. So far, the Ukrainian attack has made some progress in some parts of Ukraine, such as Zaporoge, which is regarded as the main target of Ukraine’s counterattack, because occupying it will mean cutting off the land bridge between Crimea and eastern Donetsk. However, "the Russian multi-level defense proved to be difficult to crack." CNN admits that the Ukrainian army must make a frontal attack on the well-prepared Russian defense positions, and the key lies in "the Ukrainian army lacks air superiority." The Russian army has spent several months strengthening local fortifications. "Ukrainians will never make a lightning breakthrough like last autumn in Kharkov." The latest intelligence assessment released by the British Ministry of Defence on the 17th also indicated that the Russian army "gained a temporary advantage in southern Ukraine" due to the successful attack on helicopters.

　　As for the strategic intention of the Ukrainian army’s current counterattack, compared with the optimistic expectation of "breaking through the Russian defense line and restoring the occupied territory", the opinions of all parties have also begun to change. According to the assessment of the American think tank War Research Institute, the Ukrainian army did not seem to concentrate the main forces assisted by the West in one direction to form an overwhelming force, but tried to launch attacks in different locations to find out the weak areas of the Russian defense line. However, the report reminded that the current strategy adopted by the Russian army is to use the defense line to consume the main force of the Ukrainian army. In particular, the main force of Ukraine, which is attacking forward, will leave the protection of its own short-range air defense and electronic warfare system and be more vulnerable to long-range strikes by the Russian army.

　　On 17th, Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the director of Ukrainian President Zelensky’s office, said that the Ukrainian army’s counterattack had just begun, and in the first stage, it was mainly to increase the firepower of supplying the Russian rear in different directions, so as to reduce the overall defense capability of the Russian army. At present, the primary goal of the Ukrainian counterattack is not to break through the Russian defense line, but to eliminate as many Russian soldiers and technical equipment as possible and "increase the psychological pressure of the Russian army."

　　Russia’s "free media" website said on the 16th that the Pentagon revealed the size of the reserve team that the Ukrainian army can use to fight back. Mark Millie, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Army, said that NATO has trained 60,000 soldiers for Ukraine. In order to advance the counterattack, the Ukrainian army formed 12 assault brigades. In addition, the United States is still training more Ukrainian troops. At the same time, western countries have trained 5,000 Ukrainian military operators (drivers, technicians and shooters) for NATO armored vehicles provided to Ukraine. Most of them are at the front now. "Ukrainian troops have used almost all NATO equipment, which is either on the front line or has been transferred from the third echelon to the second echelon." Ukrainian Independent News Agency reported on 17th that Ukrainian military expert Vladislav Seleznev said that the Ukrainian army was preparing for the upcoming combat operations. He said: "Can we say that a large-scale counterattack has begun? I think this preparation is still in progress, because at present, only three of the 12 assault brigades are put into use, and the others are in strategic preparation. What makes the Russian General Staff feel nervous is that they don’t know where the main force of the Ukrainian army will counterattack. It is difficult to predict how long Ukraine’s counterattack will last. Obviously, the final result will depend on the resources used and the resistance of the Russian army. "

　　Where is the next breakthrough?

　　In order to solve the current difficulties faced by the Ukrainian counterattack, the West is also constantly helping out ideas. In view of the current situation that the Ukrainian army failed to master the air superiority during the counterattack, a number of Ukrainian media reported on the 17th that the Swedish government revealed that the Swedish Air Force was training Ukrainian pilots, and it was speculated that this might be a precursor for Ukraine to acquire Swedish Gryphon fighters. It is said that Ukraine has been calling on the West to provide advanced fighters, mainly for American F-16 fighters. Due to the poor conditions of the Ukrainian air base, compared with the American-made F-16 fighter with complicated maintenance and high requirements for airport take-off and landing conditions, the Swedish Gryphon fighter was designed with the use requirements in the harsh battlefield environment in mind at the beginning, and the requirements for logistics were very low, so western military observers believe that the Gryphon fighter is more in line with the actual needs of Ukraine.

　　The US Power website said on the 17th that nearly two weeks after the dam of Kahovka Hydropower Station broke, although the raging flood flooded a large area of land downstream of the hydropower station, the water level in the upstream also dropped sharply, "actually eliminating the huge natural barrier that originally prevented the Ukrainian army from crossing the river". According to the report, there are rumors that Ukrainian special forces recently crossed the river upstream of Kahovka Hydropower Station and tried to build a bridgehead behind the current Russian defense line, thus posing a more direct threat to the Russian defense lines in Hellson and Crimea. The report speculated that the Ukrainian army might seize the changes brought about by the dam break and launch a new attack on the Russian army. "If this move is successful, Hellson and Crimea will face direct threats since Russian troops withdrew from the left bank of Dnepro River last autumn. In addition, if the Ukrainian army finds more crossing points in the upper reaches of Kahovka Hydropower Station, the Russian defense line in Zaporoge will also be threatened. "